This morning corn and soybeans are trading lower as wheat shows some relative strength for the first time in a while. Corn is down 2 ¾ soybeans is down 15 cents and wheat traded 4 ¼ cents higher into the morning pause in trading.
November soybeans gapped lower to start the overnight session and are currently trading 15 cents lower in Chicago. Trade chatter has been surrounding strong yield reports over the weekend but nothing firm has been announced. No new fundamental stories are pressuring things lower this morning so it looks like a continuation of the large bear move we have seen since June 30th. Our bias continues to be that there is more downside risk in the soybean market than corn even at current prices.
This week’s weather looks to be relatively dry with only one widespread rain forecast over the next two weeks. The 8-14 day forecast looks to be wetter than normal throughout the western part of the grain belt encompassing a large area from North Dakota to Texas. Temperatures during that same time period are expected to be 60-70% warmer than normal throughout the majority of the grain belt.
The wheat market is taking a bounce this morning after an Egyptian purchase over the weekend. Egypt bought 55,000 tonnes of U.S. soft red winter wheat for delivery during October. The U.S. wheat market has struggled to find interest from Egypt over the last several months and this sale will signal that prices have moved low enough to compete with Black Sea exporters.
The USDA crop report will be released at 3 PM CST and will be the first week the USDA reports soybean harvest.