National basis was mixed yet again. Soybeans saw slight basis gains while corn moved lower.
On average, corn lost ½ a cent per bushel. Ethanol basis followed in lockstep, losing ½ a cent as well. Even with strong exports this week, corn along the river dropped of 5 ½ cents per bushel.
Soybean crush facilities lead the move higher gaining 4.64 cents per bushel. Reports of increased worldwide demand for soyoil could be helping. Overall soybean basis edged up 1.5 cents this week on strong export demand. Soybean river basis broke the trend and was off almost a cent to close the week.
Grains were higher this week with corn advancing ¼ cent, wheat up 13, and soybeans up 27 cents. Upside momentum has been limited as brokers get ready for the USDA’s monthly supply/demand reports.
This week was marked with strong export numbers with corn coming in at the high end of analyst expectations. New crop soybeans and wheat both saw exports that exceeded analyst expectations.
A U.S. government weather forecaster reduced its outlook that La Nina conditions would develop in the next few months but was still expected in the late fall or early winter months.
After the close on Monday, USDA’s crop ratings showed a drop in corn conditions from 76% good-to-excellent last week to 74% good-to-excellent this week. Soybean conditions held steady on the week. In the Eastern Corn Belt of IN & OH, conditions continue to be sub-par. Corn in Ohio slipped on the week from 54% to 47%, soybeans 58% to 52%, Indiana corn from 77% to 73%; soy 75% to 74%.
Updated yield data gathered the NASS will be released today. Although most corn ears in major production areas should be fully elongated by Aug. 1, some of the later planted or less mature fields may be difficult to assess depending on the stage. This is always the risk with field-based surveys early in the game, but NASS will be able to confirm initial observations on its follow-up visits.
This is even more of a problem for soybeans. Aug. 1 is still a re-productively early time for soybeans in most major production states, as plants are still flowering and forming pods. Interestingly, NASS’s August corn yield projections deviate from final roughly 2 percent less than those for soybeans over the past 20 years.
Bad weather continues to plague key wheat areas in the EU. France’s exports of soft wheat outside the EU will fall to 4.8 million tonnes in 2016/17 from an estimated 12.5 million last season due to a weather-hit harvest in the bloc’s biggest grain grower, agricultural group InVivo forecast on Wednesday. French soft wheat shipments within the European Union were expected to fall to 6.7 million tonnes from 7.5 million, which would give total exports of 11.5 million tonnes, down about 40 percent from last season and the lowest volume since 2001/02.
Recent bad weather has not seemed to have had an impact on Canadian crop yields. Analysts are expecting very large harvests of wheat and canola. These large yields have raised concerns about whether grain-handling systems and railways will have ample capacity to move them smoothly.
As of this morning, crude is on the rise helped by a weakening dollar and reports of increased demand in the Middle East.