On average, national basis was lower this week with corn off 2 cents a bushel and soybeans lost almost 3.5 cents per bushel.
Even with strong exports this week, corn river basis was off the most this week, losing 7 ¾ cents per bushel. However, corn barge basis has moved up 10 cents in the last two days which could indicate expectations for continued export strength. Ethanol plant basis was lower as well, off almost 3 cents per bushel.
Soybean crush facilities were off almost 4 ½ cents this week, losing all of last week’s gains. Along the river, soybean terminals lost 1 ½ cents. Soybean barge basis was down as well, off 11 cents, potentially following the drop in exports this week.
Grains were lower to close the week. Wheat was off 8.5 cents a bushel, the lightest change of the week. Corn followed lower, losing 16 cents and soybeans led the pack down 33.25 cents a bushel.
Weather continues to be a key driving factor in this week’s trading action. As we approach the weekend, there are signs of moisture along much of the Midwest. However, looking at the 6-10 day temperatures along the central plains are predicted to reach as high as 110.
Crude was oil prices were capped by the persistent glut of oil. As of now there are few signs that oil production will slow. Last week, industry group Baker Hughes Inc. reported that the number rigs looking for oil in the U.S. rose by 10, the fifth increase in the past six weeks, bringing the total rig count to 351.
Wheat exports came in below expectations with old crop at 318,000 tonnes and new crop at 397,000 tonnes. Corn exports were above expectations with old crop netting 667,800 and new crop at 772,500. Soybeans exports were at the low end of expectations with old crop at 364,200 and new crop at 429,000.
On Tuesday, the Ukrainian agriculture ministry claimed that it expects Ukraine to export 35.33 million tonnes of grain this season. This is a significant increase from the previously reported 11.64 million tonnes.
Russia’s head weather forecaster, Hydromet Centre, reported that Russia’s favorable weather could result in the largest grain crop in post-Soviet history. Harvest is expected to be around 110 million tonnes of grain this year, up 2 million from tonnes from the record crop of 2008 according to the agricultural ministry.
The crop conditions were better than expected on corn and soybeans. To recap, Corn was reported at 76% good-to-excellent, up 1% and compared to 69% last year. The crop was 32% silking which normally looks at averages of 26% this time of year. Soybeans saw an increase as well at 71% good-to-excellent; also up 1% compared to last year’s rating at this time of 62%. The crop was 7% setting pods versus the 5% average. Spring wheat is down 2% at 70% good-to-excellent. Last year spring wheat was 71% good-to-excellent. Winter wheat was reported at 66% harvested versus the 65% average.
Tuesday’s WASDE report numbers were mostly in line with analyst expectations. Corn new crop at 2,081 and old crop at 1,701. Soybeans new crop was reported at 290 and old crop was 350, and wheat new crop was reported at 1,105.
China was scheduled to auction around 300,000 tonnes of soybeans from its temporary reserve. The auction took place last night and resulted in 99.7 percent of the auctionable product being sold.