Corn and soybeans saw mixed numbers in the cash market this week.
National corn basis was virtually unchanged from last week. Ethanol plants were off slightly, down 1/2 cent per bushel. Corn along the river saw surprising movement, up 6 cents per bushel; holding on to the only gains this week.
Soybeans were off an average of 3 cent per bushel from last Thursday; this marks the sixth week in a row of lower cash movement. Crush facilities were off another 4 1/2 cents this week, matching last week’s losses. Soybeans along the river were the biggest loser this week off 6 cents per bushel.
Corn and wheat continue to benefit from the short covering rally this week. Corn was up 9 cents and wheat up a huge 20 1/4 cents from last Thursday. Soybeans edged lower by 2 1/4 cents.
Wednesday’s USDA crop report did little to change the bearish stance in the grain market as USDA most hit expectations for US corn and soybean production. Ending stocks were cut thanks to USDA ratcheting up their forecast for both corn and soybean exports, but meeting the now 2.025 billion bushel soybean export number may prove challenging if Brazil ramps up soybean production as USDA expects.
On Tuesday, a Reuter’s poll indicated that soybean harvest was 48 percent complete and corn harvest was 38 percent complete.
Torrential rains across most Ukrainian regions after a severe drought could leave around 500,000 hectares of winter grain area unsown a senior state weather forecaster said on Tuesday. Ukraine’s winter wheat harvest is highly dependent on moisture content in the soil during the autumn sowing, air temperatures in winter and favorable weather in spring. “The outlook is very gloomy,” said Tetyana Adamenko, the head of the agriculture department for the state weather.
Australia is expected to harvest a near-record wheat crop in 2016/17, but recent heavy rains may lead to quality downgrades and curb exports. Analysts expect a crop of 28.35 MMT; just above Australia’s most recent official estimate of 28.1 MMT made in September. The bumper crop, which would be the second highest on record behind a near-30 million tonnes in 2010/11, follows good growing weather early in the season, but faces risks from soaking east-coast rains and unseasonably cold weather in Western Australia.
OPEC reported an increase in oil production in September to the highest in at least eight years and raised its forecast for 2017 non-OPEC supply growth, pointing to a larger surplus next year despite the group’s deal to cut output. OPEC pumped 33.39 million barrels per day last month, up 220,000 bpd from August. The figures underline OPEC’s challenge in seeking to restrain supplies for the first time since 2008 to curb a persistent supply glut and prop up prices.