GrainTV – August 30th, 2011

GrainTV went live this morning for the market open, with grains trading mixed following yesterday’s session. At 10:30 CST corn and wheat are both trading lower, while beans have continued their strong showing from yesterday up 6 3/4 cents on the September contract. As always, follow us on Twitter to have live market commentary sent to your mobile device!

Futures Commentary – August 25th, 2011

As economic concerns subside for the time-being, both here and abroad, equities and commodities have benefited. The Dow has risen 332.17 this week to close Thursdayat 11,149.82. Oil followed the index higher adding $2.88 a barrel settling at $84.97.Gold hit record highs near $1,915 on Tuesday just to have one of its largest selloffs everWednesday of around $100. The metal settled today at $1,772.50 down $79 this week.The dollar index gained modestly keeping a lid on commodities.

Corn continues to profit from yield concerns heightening after the Pro Farmer’sCrop Tour weak yield estimates. The grain has gained 18 ¼ cents on the most-activeDecember contract ending trade at $7.43 ½. The December contract hit several all-timehighs this week with the latest being at $7.48 ¾. With prices being elevated, manydemanders will be backing off purchases in the weeks to come. Exports were reported as826,200 MT, which is down 9 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from theprior 4-week average.

Wheat has been the leader to the upside this week gaining 26 cents on the CBOTDecember contract settling at $7.87 ¼ today. Lower than anticipated spring wheatproduction and concerns surrounding winter wheat plantings have propelled the markethigher. Providing resistance is strong export competition stemming from the Black Searegion, Australia, and Canada. This is evidenced by exports that were 469,000 MT,which is down 27 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-weekaverage.

Soybeans continue to be range bound and are up 23 cents to $13.91 ½ on the mostactive November contract. Once again the market traded above $14, the 11th time in 6months, but failed to close above that major resistance level. Many analysts feel that amajor yield reduction is needed to breakout above this level. Renewed export demandhas been beneficial, however. Exports were reported as 282,500 MT, which is up 48percent from the previous week and 54 percent from the prior 4-week average.

The global markets have calmed down relative to the trading action over the pastseveral weeks, but could get stirred up again when Ben Bernanke makes his annualspeech from Jackson Hole. Gold took massive losses for a couple of days, whilecommodities and equities gained. Yield concerns will be the biggest driver of theagricultural markets up to and including harvest.

Cash Market Commentary – August 25th, 2011

Spot soybean basis continued its decline this week down seven cents on average across the country. Pockets of weakness were prevalent in areas of Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri. The average basis decline in Kansas was 16 cents, 10 cents in Nebraska, and 14 cents in Missouri. A major factor behind these declines stemmed from crushing plants in the area dropping their basis significantly as concerns over 2010 stocks seem to be diminishing. Crushing plants on average were down a cent lower than the average – down 8 cents over the last week. The export market gave little support to sliding spot soybean basis as gulf export markets lowered basis by 4 cents.
Average Basis By Delivery
Spot corn basis also continued lower last week, down five cents on average. We have seen a sharp decline in basis for spot delivery, down 21 cents since August 1st, as concerns over old crop corn stocks seem to be waning. Combined with confidence in old crop stocks is heightened anticipation of a timely 2011 crop harvest, as the record heat across the Corn Belt has helped crop progress along. A large area of basis weakness has developed across southern states as a sluggish harvest has picked up speed. In Mississippi 29% of the corn crop is now harvested, up from 10% last week, and just behind the 5 year average of 31%. This slowed harvest has been the result of heavy rains in the area last week, with some elevators reporting that drying this year’s crop has been an issue.
Average Basis By Delivery

GrainTV – August 23rd, 2011

GrainTV went live this morning for the market open with grains opening up across the board. Yield forecasts continue to drive the markets, and we have seen price action in both the futures and cash market indicating concerns over the 2011 crop. Big news for equity markets with spill-over consequences for the grains is the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium running between the 25th and 27th of August. At last year’s event Ben Bernanke announced the second round of quantative easing, and there is some speculation that this year’s meeting could end in a similiar announcement. Tune in to today’s GrainTV broadcast for a breakdown of these and other issues driving the grain markets.

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GrainTV – August 19th, 2011

This afternoon GrainTV went live for the weekly market recap. Grains rebounded on Friday, leaving a bullish taste in the mouth of traders at the weeks end after Thursday’s global sell off. Our analysts talk greenness with regards to crop conditions in the north and planting conditions in the south for Kansas City wheat. Biomass concerns and a poor spring wheat crop from the north suggest that wheat futures still have room to move upward regardless of international competition and a global slowdown.

Our analysts cap the show off with technical talk in December corn after the contract printed highs of 733 ½ this week. As always, visit us at www.grainhedge.com for a demo of our ‘Firetip’ trading platform, and submit any questions you may have to graintv@gmail.com

GrainTV – August 18th, 2011

GrainTV went live this morning for the market open, with grains opening lower across the board. Outside markets were once again tanking this morning, with the DOW trading nearly 500 points lower before the opening bell at the CME. This again had a spill over affect into the commodities with both oil and grains trading sharply lower this morning, while gold has climbed even higher in the morning trade as investors flock to this safe haven asset. Tune into this morning’s GrainTV for a full breakdown of this and other news we’ve seen over the last several days. As always, follow us on Twitter for live market commentary sent to your mobile device!

Cash Market Commentary – August 17th, 2011

Spot corn basis continued to slide this week, down 8 cents on average, across the country. Basis for spot delivery has now fallen 17 cents on average since August 1st, with stretches of the Mississippi River North of St. Louis and the Eastern Cornbelt continuing to be areas of weakness. In both of these regions ethanol plants continue to put downward pressure on the cash market, with some ethanol facilities lowering basis by 15 cents or more just in the past week. A weak export market has given little support to basis out of the Gulf, but basis declines in this area were less than the national average – down just 5 cents. To find out how GeoGrain’s cash market intelligence can be put to work for you, give us a call at 866-290-1196 or visit us online at www.geograin.com.
Average Basis By Delivery

GrainTV – August 16th, 2011

GrainTV went live this morning, August 18th, for the market open. New Crop corn yields were a major focus of this morning’s broadcast, and today we had Jude Kastens on the phone to discuss the Terrametrics/Planalytics yield forecast which has been spot on since early June. Tune in for the full breakdown of this report by Jude and to see the 8-10 day forecast for your area. As always, visit www.grainhedge.com to take a demo of the Firetip trading platform or call 866-290-1196 to speak directly with a Grain Hedge analysts.

 

GrainTV – August 11th, 2011

This morning the market opened sharply higher, with SEP corn opening at 29 1/4 following this mornings USDA Crop Production and Supply and Demand reports. Grains have held their ground this week while the equities markets have been tanking, and today’s lower than expected crop production figures will give grain bulls additional steam coming into harvest.Tune in for a complete breakdown of yeilds, ending stocks, and production figures by our analysts.

Don’t forget to e-mail your questions to graintv@gmail.com or visit us at www.grainhedge.com to take a demo of the Firetip trading platform!

GrainTV – August 9th, 2011

Join GrainTV this morning – live for market open. The market seems to be trading Monday’s bullish Crop Progress Report on the heels of yesterday’s global blood bath across equities and commodities alike. Grain Hedge analysts discuss the 7-day forecast for the corn belt which calls for cooler, wetter, weather moving into the area. Finally, our analysts look forward to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the Federal Reserve scheduled for 2:15 EST and discuss the implications for the grain markets.

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