GrainTV – April 30th, 2012

This morning, Brock and Logan watch the market open and take a look at the July-December corn spread using the Firetip platform. Commitment of Traders and this afternoon’s Crop Progress Report are also discussed, tune in for the full report!

GrainHedgelogo

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

GrainTV – April 24th, 2012

This morning Brock and Cody discuss a large old crop corn sale this morning reported by the Foreign Ag Service and yesterday’s Crop Progress Report. Grains are up across the board, tune in to see the market open!

GrainHedgelogo

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

GrainTV – April 19th, 2012

The grain market isn’t ready for 600 old crop corn or 1400 old crop soybeans just yet. After yesterday’s sell-off we see corn up 16, soybeans up 8, and Chicago wheat up 13 cents. Macro forces have helped today’s rally, and on this morning’s GrainTV we discuss outside markets, export sales data, ethanol production, and look at some technicals. Tune in for the full report!

GrainHedgelogo

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

GrainTV – April 18th, 2012

On this morning’s broadcast Kevin and Cody discuss the delayed crop progress report, and what wheat producers should do in light of this spring and winter wheat crop that is off to a great start. Tune in for the full report!

The grain complex is selling off across the board this morning, at the time of this post we see corn down 12 1/4, soybeans down 18 1/4, and Chicago wheat down 8. Keep an eye on the soybean complex as last Friday’s COT report showed 216,000 net longs held by managed money. When these bulls exit the plane expect turbulence, and with nearly 50 cents taken off the May contract in the last week there could be some nervous longs in the managed money sector.

It will be important to see where we close today, follow us on Twitter @GrainTV for updates if you are out working the fields. Want to view live quotes and execute your own trades for $7 commissions per side? Take a demo of Firetip today!

GrainHedgelogo

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

GrainTV – April 17th, 2012

At the time of this post we see soybeans leading the grains to the upside, up 12 3/4 cents for May delivery. Export sales to unknown destinations were reported this morning for old and new crop soybeans, and it looks to be lending support to a market that has sold off in recent sessions.

This morning Brock and Logan discuss fundamentals in the soybean complex and expectations for this afternoons delayed crop progress report. Like the live quotes and charts you see on GrainTV? Take a Firetip demo today!

GrainHedgelogo

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

 

Planters Are Rolling but the Markets Are Mixed

A large portion of the Corn Belt has begun planting with near ideal conditions
present most places. The major equity and commodity markets are mixed so far this
week however. The Dow has retreated slightly from recent highs and is down 74.55
points to end trade Thursday at 12,986.58. Oil is recovered 42 cents a barrel this week to
settle at $103.67 today. Gold is once again in investors favor and is up $44.70 an ounce
at $1,675.50. The dollar index is off sharply this week giving support to the commodities
markets.

Corn was the dog of the agricultural commodities this week and is off 19 cents to
settle at $6.39 ¼ today. The USDA Ending Stocks report did not get revised lower as
most of the analysts were anticipating resulting in a substantial sell off Tuesday. The
grain remains range bound between $6.30 and $6.50 for the time being. Planting is
beginning to progress and was reported as 7% complete. Export sales again beat
expectations and were reported as 959,100 MT, which is up 2.3% from last week.

Soybeans continue to be the leader to the upside and are up another 8 ¼ cents
finishing at $14.42 ¼. More revisions lower for the South American crop in both the
WASDE report and by private analysts has continued to support this market. Exports
were revised higher in Tuesday’s report as was crushing usage leading to lower
anticipated ending stocks. Exports sales missed expectations and were reported as
460,100 MT, which is up 13.1% from last week.

Wheat has held its ground and is up ½ cent on the CBOT May contract to settle at
$6.39 today. The good/excellent ratings for the winter wheat crop continue to climb and
spring wheat planting is about a month ahead of usual. Both of these factors are keeping
a lid on this market. Export sales were routine and were reported as 452,100 MT, which
is up 10.7% from last week.

Planted will be progressing ahead of schedule as the conditions are nearly ideal
for getting the crops in the ground. The major equity and commodity markets were
mostly mixed this week despite getting a bevy of fundamental news from the USDA.
Weather and planting progress will be the driving forces for the weeks to come.

GrainTV – April 12th, 2012

Brock and Cody discuss this week’s USDA Export Sales report and take a look at the pace needed to reach USDA Export expectations laid out in the most recent USDA WASDE report. Watch the markets trade live on the Firetip platform, take a demo today!

GrainHedgelogo

button(4)

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

GrainTV – April 10th, 2012

The market is open and we see mixed trading on the board right now. Corn down 3, soybeans up 7, and Chicago wheat up 1 1/4 at the time of this post. Today’s USDA WASDE report didn’t give the bulls much to run on, with the exception being lower ending stocks of wheat and improved export expectations for soybeans. Driving higher export expectations was a further downgrade in soybean production out of Brazil, lowered 2.5 MMT from the March report. This wasn’t a huge surprise, as we saw private analyst Informa peg production in this area on April 4th.

1450 has provided resistance to the May soybean contract in recent trade sessions, and producers should keep an eye on this area if they are still holding old crop beans. Follow us on Twitter at @GrainTV to get live market updates if you are working in the fields today.

Tune in for the full report!

GrainHedgelogo

button(4)

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Cash Commentary – April 5th, 2012

After weeks of delving into corn and soybean basis we turn our attention to Chicago and Kansas City wheat. With the first crop progress report of the year released this week we see that the winter wheat crop is shaping up well so far. Currently, 58% of the crop is rated good to excellent, an increase of around 21% from last year. Not only is the crop looking better this year but there is also an estimated 41.7 million acres being planted. According to the prospective planting report released at the end of last month, winter wheat acreage looks to increase by around three percent from 2011.

Chicago wheat new crop basis since the beginning of the year has been an average of 30 cents stronger than the maximum new crop basis levels seen in the last five years and 66 cents stronger than the five year average. Just within the last week new crop SRW basis moved up a penny.  These strong basis levels still persist among futures prices that are right on target with the five year average.

Kansas City wheat new crop basis has not shown nearly the gains of SRW but is still sitting about 13 cents above the five year average. In the last seven days HRW new crop basis was up one and a half cents. Basis levels this year are considerably stronger than last year, up an average of 55 cents. Last year, futures prices for HRW were particularly strong, recording some of the highest prices seen in the last five years.

Strength in both the Chicago and Kansas City wheat cash markets, stem from decreasing grain stocks. According to the quarterly stocks report published March 30th, wheat stored in all positions is down 16% from last year. Current stocks are at the lowest they have been in the last three years at around 1.2 billion bushels.

Futures Commentary – April 5th, 2012

This week the US grain market was still digesting last Friday’s Planting Intentions and Quarterly Grain Stock reports. Quarterly Stocks for both soybeans and wheat were at the low end of expectations, but corn came in sharply below trade expectations at 6.01 billion bushels. Planted acreage also brought surprises, as the USDA projected a bin-busting 95.9 million acres of corn and a lower than expected 73.9 million acres of soybeans to be planted this spring.

With tighter than expected old crop stocks and larger than expected planted acreage, the July – December corn spread climbed above 120 cents this week, the highest level since February of 2011. Old crop corn futures have been trading a range in the last several months, and we expect significant technical resistance at 675-680. With how tight old crop stocks are we certainly see the potential to break out of this range to the upside, but producers that are sitting on old crop corn should consider making cash sales around this area on a percentage of remaining bushels. Cash basis remains the highest we have seen in nearly a decade, with many elevators bidding old crop corn above the May contract.

Soybeans have continued to be the leader to the upside in the grain market, with soybean contracts through August trading above 1400 in Chicago. The lower than expected soybean acreage in the USDA’s Planting Intentions Report confirmed that soybean stocks could be tight throughout the next marketing year. As a result, the soybean market has been bidding up the November contract – adding 19 ½ cents during this short trade week. The new crop soybean/corn ratio is now above 2.50, well above the 2.40 mark that most of the trade has been viewing as the area where soybeans will gain a profitability premium, per acre, over corn. However, private analysts and anecdotal evidence from producers both indicate that many farmers have already made planting decisions, and corn is still king. At this point, we will have to see significant planting delays this spring to move acres out of corn and into beans. Given the most recent 30-60-90 day forecast and dryer then normal sub soil moisture conditions across the Western Corn Belt, this scenario seems unlikely.

The US Winter Wheat crop is off to a great start this year, with Monday’s Crop Progress Report showing 58% of this crop rated good to excellent. This compares to 38% rated good to excellent last year at this time, and many producers across the southern central plains are saying that this is the best Kansas City Wheat crop they have seen in years. Continued moisture across the southern plains have helped alleviate drought conditions in many areas of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, but keep an eye on weather as a spring freeze could harm this early emerging crop.

Have a great Easter weekend and we will see you back here on Monday.