GrainTV – June 22nd, 2012

Abbey and Cody wrap up an interesting week in the futures market, and take a look at the red hot cash market for corn.

Want to watch and trade these markets whenever they are open? Take a demo of our Firetip trading platform and get started!

GrainHedgelogo

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Futures Commentary – June 21st, 2012

 

The macro markets fell sharply this week as the Fed’s remarks and downgrades to some European debt ratings were causes for concern.  The Dow is down 193.40 so far this week to end trade Thursday at 12,573.57.  Oil has fallen sharply as demand concerns have driven the market down $6.04 a barrel to trade near $77.96 as of this writing.  Gold continues to lose favor as a safe-haven asset losing another $61 an ounce to settle at $1,565.70 today.  The dollar index has rising sharply as several European banks received downgrades to their credit ratings.  Agricultural commodities have rallied in the face of the macro market selloff.

Corn has gained 6 ¼ cents on the July contract to settle at $5.89 ½ Thursday.  The market benefited from hot temperatures early in the week that drove prices to the highest level in nearly a month.  Some rains have come later in the week to take some of the weather premium back out of the market.  Conditions for crops in Illinois and Indiana once again showed large declines in the good-to-excellent ratings.  Export sales continue to disappoint and were reported as 171,400 MT, which is up 86% from last week.

Soybeans have rallied sharply this week tacking on 59 ¼ cents to the July contact ending trade at $14.39 today.  As with corn, the conditions ratings for soybeans showed significant declines in the good-to-excellent ratings across several of the key growing states.  Technically the chart landscape has begun to look much better after moving through some resistance areas.  Export sales continue to run ahead of pace and were reported as 163,800 MT, which was a marketing year low.

Wheat ran up 47 ½ cents to settle at $6.60 on the July CBOT contract Thursday.  Harvest pressure is starting to subside as the key growing states of Oklahoma and Kansas are nearly completed with harvest.  Productions concerns for the Black Sea region and Europe have given a reason for buyers to enter the market.  Export sales added to the bullishness and were reported as 842,000 MT, which is up 94.5% from a week ago.

Bearish fundamental news has driven the outside macro markets lower this week, but the commodity markets have rallied in the face of this selloff.  Weather and condition ratings have been a key driving force for the agricultural markets and will continue to be a major factor for the weeks to come.  The end of the month will bring us the USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage reports adding to an already volatile month of trade.

The macro markets fell sharply this week as the Fed’s remarks and downgrades
to some European debt ratings were causes for concern. The Dow is down 193.40 so far
this week to end trade Thursday at 12,573.57. Oil has fallen sharply as demand concerns
have driven the market down $6.04 a barrel to trade near $77.96 as of this writing. Gold
continues to lose favor as a safe-haven asset losing another $61 an ounce to settle at
$1,565.70 today. The dollar index has rising sharply as several European banks received
downgrades to their credit ratings. Agricultural commodities have rallied in the face of
the macro market selloff.
Corn has gained 6 ¼ cents on the July contract to settle at $5.89 ½ Thursday. The
market benefited from hot temperatures early in the week that drove prices to the highest
level in nearly a month. Some rains have come later in the week to take some of the
weather premium back out of the market. Conditions for crops in Illinois and Indiana
once again showed large declines in the good-to-excellent ratings. Export sales continue
to disappoint and were reported as 171,400 MT, which is up 86% from last week.
Soybeans have rallied sharply this week tacking on 59 ¼ cents to the July contact
ending trade at $14.39 today. As with corn, the conditions ratings for soybeans showed
significant declines in the good-to-excellent ratings across several of the key growing
states. Technically the chart landscape has begun to look much better after moving
through some resistance areas. Export sales continue to run ahead of pace and were
reported as 163,800 MT, which was a marketing year low.
Wheat ran up 47 ½ cents to settle at $6.60 on the July CBOT contract Thursday.
Harvest pressure is starting to subside as the key growing states of Oklahoma and Kansas
are nearly completed with harvest. Productions concerns for the Black Sea region and
Europe have given a reason for buyers to enter the market. Export sales added to the
bullishness and were reported as 842,000 MT, which is up 94.5% from a week ago.
Bearish fundamental news has driven the outside macro markets lower this week,
but the commodity markets have rallied in the face of this selloff. Weather and condition
ratings have been a key driving force for the agricultural markets and will continue to be
a major factor for the weeks to come. The end of the month will bring us the USDA’s
Quarterly Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage reports adding to an already volatile month
of trade.

Futures Commentary – June 8th, 2012

For the time being, European debt concerns have eased slightly giving way to a retreat of the dollar index from its relatively high levels. The Dow has moved higher too and is up 342.39 points this week to finish trade Thursday at 12,460.96. Oil has rebounded 91 cents a barrel to trade near $84.15 as of this writing. Gold has seen risk-on trade take funds away resulting in a loss of $32.80 an ounce to settle at $1,589.90 today. The agricultural commodities have benefited from a weakening dollar and weather concerns.

Corn has rebounded from multi-month lows adding 37 cents to the July contract to settle at $5.93 today. Quickly drying top soil and a dryer than usual extended forecast, has allowed the market to build in a weather premium over the last several sessions. Monday’s crop condition ratings were left unchanged on the good-to-excellent ratings, however. The droughty conditions have continued to expand over central Illinois and Indiana. Export sales were reported as 251,800 MT for the ‘11/’12 marketing year.

Soybeans have been the leader to the upside this week and have tacked on 41 cents to the July contract to end trade Thursday at $13.84. Tight stocks and the likelihood of further revisions lower in next week’s USDA/WASDE have pushed this market to higher ground. Export sales continue to be well ahead of the pace needed to meet current estimates for the marketing year, adding to the bullishness. Export sales this week were reported as 220.200 MT, which is down 9% from last report.

Wheat has followed corn and soybeans higher and has gained 18 ¾ cents to settle at $6.37 ¼ on the July CBOT contract. Most of the pressure is to the downside for wheat, however. Harvest is reported as 20% complete as of last Monday with quality and yields being very good thus far. The spring wheat crop is off to a terrific start and was rated as 78% good-to-excellent in the most recent report. A new marketing year has begun and export sales were reported as 165,700 MT.

Dryer than normal conditions will be a driving force for the next couple of weeks across the Midwest. This has led the agricultural commodities to build in a weather premium. Adding to the bullish weather scenario is the weakening dollar index as of late. All of this comes just ahead of June’s USDA/WASDE Supply/Demand report set to be released on the 12th. Later this month, we received the Planted Acreage report and Quarterly Grain Stocks report.

Cash Commentary – June 8th, 2012

As we jump into June, spot basis continues to steadily improve for both corn and soybeans. Just within the last week spot corn basis increased an average of three cents across the country. Basis levels today exceed the highest levels we have seen in the last five years by an average of 33 cents. As of today spot basis sits at an average of 16 cents above the July contract and 46 cents above the five year average.

Throughout last week, the Gulf made big moves increasing spot basis eight cents. The large push out of the Gulf also extended up the rivers where terminals increased basis an average of eight cents as well. Barge rates dropped slightly last week but current rates are recorded at least ten cents below the five year average depending on the river. Ethanol plants were also on the move this week increasing spot basis an average of four cents.

Spot soybean basis also continued to make gains this week up an average of two cents nationwide. Like corn, the Gulf was a big mover this week gaining nine cents. River terminals and crushing facilities also saw increases over the last seven days, up an average of five and two cents respectively.

Current spot basis levels for soybeans are around ten cents stronger than the five year average at 41 cents under the July contract. Basis during this time the last three years was slightly stronger and managed to gain an additional one to two cents throughout June. Watch for spot soybean basis to gain a few cents from now until the end of the July contract as this year’s soybean basis has followed a similar trend to that seen in the last five years.

GrainTV – June 8th, 2012

Abbey and Cody wrap up the week’s action in the futures market and look at cash market data as we approach next Tuesday’s WASDE report.

Want to watch and trade these markets whenever they are open? Take a demo of our Firetip trading platform and get started!

GrainHedgelogo

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

GrainTV – June 6th, 2012

This morning Cody and Logan look at a number of issues affecting the grain complex.

Want to watch and trade these markets whenever they are open? Take a demo of our Firetip trading platform and get started!

GrainHedgelogo

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

GrainTV – June 1st, 2012

Friday was a very volatile and mixed day in the grains, with wheat being the big leader to the downside. Cody and Abbey discuss what was moving the market and take a look at basis strength across the country.

Want to watch and trade these markets whenever they are open? Take a demo of our Firetip trading platform and get started!

GrainHedgelogo

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.