This Thursday, at 11:00 AM Central Time, the USDA will release the Planting Intentions and Quarterly Grain Stock reports. Below are market expectations for the report, and what Grain Hedge analysts are looking for out of the numbers.
Once again, expectations are for very large corn and soybean acres to be sown this spring. Analysts are expecting soybean acres to pick up the most ground as a percentage of last year’s figures, with the average analyst guess looking for 1.6% more soybeans acres to be planted. This compares to 0.1% more corn acres and 1.2% more wheat acres expected.
|13/14 Planted Acreage (Million Acres)|
March 1st quarterly stocks are expected to be lower than this time a year ago for corn, soybeans, and wheat. The USDA has raised their projected corn used for feed by 400 million bushels since the December WASDE report, and it will be important to see this higher feed usage reflected in the March 1st Quarterly Stocks Report. We have been talking a lot recently about the deep discount wheat has compared to corn in the cash market, and how many feed lots are starting to use wheat as a substitute for corn in feed rations. While Thursday’s numbers may show some signs of this substitution, we would expect the major impact of this to be reflected in the June Quarterly Stocks Report.
|March 1st Grain Stocks (Billion Bushels)|