ALERT: USDA Grain Stocks Report at 11:00 AM Central Time Today
In the overnight session some of yesterday’s gains have been erased as corn fell 1 ½ cents, soybeans fell 5 ½ cents and wheat dropped 4 ¾ cents as the U.S Dollar index rallied again this morning, up nearly ½ a percent. This morning Ukragroconsult raised their Ukraine 14/15 wheat export forecast by 5.3 percent, up to 10.0 million metric tons.
Today’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report will be the focus for traders. Analysts expect September 1st stocks of soybeans to be reported at 1.185 billion bushels and soybean stocks at just 126 million. Soybean stocks will be watched the closest considering the exceptionally tight stocks during the 2013/14 marketing year. Historically this report has been volatile for prices, but today’s reaction should be quelled by the large 2014/15 crop which is expected to replenish tight stocks of corn and soybeans, in particular.
Rain across the Midwest may slow harvest over the next 6-10 days but is coming at a time when some corn and soybean stands have not yet reached maturity. Monday’s crop progress report had 69% of soybeans dropping leaves and 60% of corn mature. Conditions actually improved for soybean by 1 percent compared to last week. Corn’s good-to-excellent rating was unchanged. Harvest has been moving forward over the last week, but not as much as analysts were expecting with only 12% of corn harvested compared to estimates of 15%. For soybeans, 11% was reported harvested compared to estimates of 11%. Both corn and soybeans are behind the 5 year average harvest pace.