November 18 – Morning Comments

In the overnight session corn traded down 1 ¾ cents, soybeans traded up 1 ¼ cents and wheat fell 4 ½ cents. Yesterday, soybeans saw some strong fundamental data which lifted the price into the close. In the first part of the trade the export inspections number supported prices as 3,113,311 metric tons of soybeans were inspected this week for export. The inspections number was well outside of the 2-2.3 million metric tons analyst were expecting.

Export inspections for corn and wheat were not nearly as impressive. Wheat missed expectations by only recording 139,351 metric tons and corn missed expectations to the low side with only 401,116 metric tons inspected for export.

NOPA crush numbers were released at 11 CST and showed a 58% improvement in crush over last month. According to the National Oilseed Processors Association 157.960 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in the month of October which was well above expectations for only 150.781 million bushels. Soymeal exports increased to 707,934 tons in October from 308,515 tons in September. Following the report, the market was able to rally over 10 cents to break through the 100 day moving average. We feel that the strong NOPA crush numbers are likely to explain why soybeans was able to trade over $10.80 last week, but not provide enough of a case for prices to set new highs in the coming weeks. Although demand is currently quite strong, soybean prices are expensive at these levels and we have a huge soybean crop that is now out of the fields.

In the latest crop progress report the USDA announced that 94% of soybeans were harvested up from 90% last week and corn was 89 percent harvested up from 80% last week. Winter wheat crop conditions maintained 60% good-to-excellent.