Morning Comments – April 5th

Headlines

  • Grains extend rebound in the overnight.

  • Soybean export sales beat expectations.

  • Slow planting progress expected to continue in Delta/Deep south.

Weather

  • Plains wheat remains dry in western KS, southeastern CO, western OK and northwestern TX.

  • Southeastern Plains is forecast to receive moisture in the 6-10 day outlook.

  • The Delta is expected to continue receiving moisture in the 6-10 day outlook which is expected to continue slowing planting progress.

Argentina

  • Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and into the weekend in central and southern production regions of Argentina.

  • More showers are expected to start in southern Argentina and move north from Monday to Wednesday.

Brazil

  • China’s tariff announcement yesterday drove the Brazilian soybean premium 37% higher after already being at record levels during harvest.

  • Brazil soybean harvest is 72% complete up from 65% last week. This is on par with the average harvest pace of 73% at this time.

  • Brazil harvest of 1st crop corn is 60% complete, up 9% from last week and on par with the average harvest pace of 58%.

Ethanol

  • Ethanol production was mostly unchanged this week at 1.038 million barrels per day vs LW production of 1.039 mbpd.

  • Production was 1.9 percent ahead of last year during the same week. Production needs to maintain 2.5 percent above last year to meet the USDA’s expectations.

  • If production holds steady around these levels and doesn’t dip during the April May time period, ethanol production has a chance to get back on track to meet USDA’s corn used for ethanol estimates.

  • Ethanol stocks slipped lower last week to 942 million gallons from 957 million gallons the previous week. Stocks are now below last years levels by 54 million gallons

Export Sales

  • Corn and wheat missed analyst expectations, but soybean sales soared.

  • Corn sales were down 34% from LW and down 50% from the four week average.

  • Wheat sales were down 69 percent from LW and 63% from the four week average.

  • Soybean sales increased from last week with strong sales to unknown destinations and 137,400 MT sold to China.

Actual

Estimated

Wheat

109

200-500

Corn

898

1,000-1,300

Soybeans

1,133

600-900

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