Morning Comments – April 11

Headlines

  • Soybeans higher in the overnight on lower world carry-out.

  • Abiove increased Brazil production and export estimates.

  • Trump to delay bio-fuel reform.

  • Exporters sell 120,000 metric tons of Soybeans for delivery to Argentina during the 2018/2019 marketing year.-USDA

  • Exporters sell 141,518 metric tons of Soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2018/2019 marketing year.-USDA

April WASDE Highlights

  • Global soybean carry-out was lower than expected with 90.8 MMT vs 92.9 MMT expected.

  • Global wheat carry-out was larger than expected with 271.20 MMT vs 268.16 MMT expected.

  • Argentina soybean crop estimated at 40 MMT vs. 42.6MMT expected and down from 47 MMT in March.

  • Argentina and Brazil corn production were both about .75MMT below trade expectations.

  • Little changed in U.S. corn, soybeans and wheat balance sheets.

Abiove Raises Soybean Estimates

  • Brazil industry trade group Abiove increased their soybean production forecast in Brazil to 117.4 MMT, up 2.4 percent from March.

  • The group increased their export forecast for Brazil soybeans to 70.4 MMT up sharply from 68.1 MMT in 2017.

  • Abiove expects the amount of soybeans crushed in Brazil to increase to 43.2 MMT.

Plains Forecast

  • The forecast shows an increased chance of precipitation in the central plains late in the 6-10 day, but forecast remains dry in southwestern plains.

  • The latest forecast shows the chance of rain across much of the winter wheat belt, but confidence in the event remains low. Traders are still concerned about dryness in the region.

Brazil Forecast

  • Forecast is wetter in the 6-10 day forecast with most moisture focusing on the northern growing regions. Dryness is expected to lower soil moisture in southern and central growing region.

  • The longer range forecast shows chances of below normal rainfall in the northern belt of 2nd crop corn for the month of May. There is potential for some crop stress, but rainfall throughout the rest of the belt should be mostly beneficial.

Argentina Forecast

  • Showers forecast in 6-10 day forecast for Buenos Aires, Santa Fe and Entre Rios will slow corn and soybean dry-down and delay harvest.

Trump Administration to Delay Bio-fuel Policy Reform

  • Reuters reported this morning that Trump will delay any bio-fuels reform for about three months in an effort to shield the farming sector currently worried about the impacts of a looming trade war.

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