Morning Comments – April 12

Headlines

  • Strong soybean exports sales.

  • Ethanol production held steady while stocks continue to decline.

  • Argentina purchases US soybeans for the 2nd time this week.

Ethanol Production

  • Ethanol production declined last week to 1.034 million barrels from 1.038 million barrels. Weekly production was 4.9% above LY.

  • Ethanol production dipped LY through May which means if weekly production holds steady over the next two months we will be back on track to meet the current corn used for ethanol estimate of 5.575 billion bushels.

  • Ethanol stocks declined again this week to 918 million gallons from 942 million gallons LW. Over the last four weeks we have seen a 10% decline in ethanol stocks which is the largest on record over a four week period.

Argentina Purchases U.S. Soybeans

  • Argentina purchased 120,000 MT of 18/19 soybeans from the U.S. on Wednesday.

  • Argentina made a similar purchase on Tuesday.

  • These sales will show up in next weeks export sales report.

  • The buyer was oilseed processor Vicentin SAIC and shows the impact of the drought in Argentina.

  • These purchases represent the largest imports to Argentina from the U.S. in 20 years and it is likely there will be more to come.

  • Weekly Export Sales

  • Soybean sales beat expectations and were up 74% from the four week average. China accounted for 254,700 MT while unknown destinations accounted for 665,800 MT. Egypt, Mexico and Taiwan were also present on the buyer list.

  • Soybean exports were only 419,700 MT which was a marketing year low.

  • Corn sales and wheat sales missed expectations. Both corn and wheat sales were 46% below the four week average.

Actual

Estimated

Wheat

120

150-350

Corn

839

900-1,400

Soybeans

1,510

900-1,400

Ukraine Planting Underway

  • Planting in Ukraine was reported to be 23% complete.

  • Weather is forecast to be favorable for both spring and winter crops.

  • This year 7.4 million hectares of spring grain is expected to be planted, up from 7.3 million hectares last year.

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