Morning Comments – May 22

Headlines

Planting Progress Speeds Along

Weather Expected to Turn Hot and Dry

Brazil FOB Prices Mixed Relative to US

Brazil Truck Strike

 

USDA Planting Progress

Corn was 81% planted vs 62% last week and 81% on the 5-year avg.

Soybeans jumped 21% on the week hitting 56% and well above the 44% 5-YR AVG.

Both MN & SD had big jumps in corn planting getting to 77% and 66% respectively. So the threat of a late planting is waning.

Early crop condition ratings in some states show a solid start to the crop. IL was rated at 88% good-to-excellent and IN at 83%. MO fared slightly worse with 71% rated good-to-excellent.

 

 

Weather Models Point to Hot/Dry Conditions

Latest GFS weather model shows temps rising into the upper 80s/low 90s for much of the US Plains over the next 10 days.

Major portions of the grain belt from IA to the East should see more moderate temps in the 80s.

Major rain events stay mostly in the Southeast over the next 10 days.

 

Brazil Beans Weaken Relative to US

Brazil’s soybean prices continue to erode relative to US soy export prices

Latest quotes show Brazil at an $11/MT discount relative to the US versus $7/MT discount mid last week.

However, in corn Brazil prices moved higher on Monday to be on par with US FOB values, after trading at a $5 discount last week.

 

Brazil Trucker Strike

Brazil truckers blocked major roadways in the largest grain state, Parana, to protest rising fuel costs.

Santos Port Authority says protests have slowed loading and unloading at export terminals.

 Weather Images

may 22 5 day precip snip may 22 10 day precip may 22 5 day temp May 22 10 day temp