Grains were mixed overnight with corn and wheat posting modest losses while soybeans inched higher.

For corn, basis levels seem to be coming under pressure as end-users begin to roll out of July into September and take some of the spread off the top. Western Cornbelt end users were mostly lower yesterday dropping 5 to 10 cents in some cases. A notable exception was Decatur which has seen its basis move up in the last few days after being relatively uncompetitive.  South Korea’s Nofi bought 69,000 MT of optional origin (including Black Sea) corn for arrival by October 30, and a further 58,000 MT to arrive by November 15.

In wheat, India’s cabinet on Friday is expected to allow a move to add another 2 MMT of wheat for export, bringing the total offered to 6.5 MMT as the government looks to cut stockpiles of wheat.  Wet weather continues to plague US winter wheat harvest, slowing the pace in the Plains, and also causing quality concerns in SRW wheat territory in the Eastern Cornbelt. China, as well, seems to be having issues with wet weather during wheat harvest as sprouting is starting to be an issue.

For soybeans, a South Korea feed manufacturer bought 60,000 MT of soymeal overnight believed to be sourced from South America. On Tuesday, it was announced that China bought 240,000 MT of new-crop soybeans from the US. Also, the US attaché in China pegs Chinese soybean imports up sharply in the coming year, at a record 67.5 MMT, but many in the trade remain skeptical. Shanghai JC Intelligence, a respected local analysis group, estimated the figure at 60.5 MMT, saying that the USDA has “grossly overestimated China’s demand” for soybeans.

Wheat found mild support overnight, gaining 7 cents a bushel as USDA data showed poor crop conditions and a slow harvest pace. Soybeans also were higher gaining 6 cents on front-month July futures while corn was mostly unchanged.

USDA’s crop progress report on Monday showed winter wheat conditions at 31% good to excellent, unchanged from last week. But, the proportion in poor or very poor condition rose one point to 43%. Traders had been expecting crop conditions to improve after early yield reports put a somewhat positive outlook on the production potential of the crop. However, to date only 11% of the winter wheat crop is harvested compared to 25% normally harvested by this time of the year. In Russia, will start this year’s wheat harvest on a large scale next week, two weeks earlier than usual, the state weather forecaster said overnight.

In soybeans, the NOPA crush estimate released on Monday showed better than expected soybean consumption with May crush coming in at 122.6 MB versus trade expectations of 118.1 MB. However, good weather helped increase soybean plantings to 85% completed while the first condition report of the season showed 64% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition versus 56% last year.

In the international market, the Taiwan Sugar Corp. rejected all offers and made no purchase in a tender for 23,000 MT of U.S.-origin corn and 12,000 MT of U.S.-origin soybeans overnight, as prices were said to be too high, with hopes that global corn and soybeans prices could continue their recent weak trend, so making it worthwhile to delay purchases. The U.S. corn crop was rated at 64% good to excellent, up slightly from last week’s value of 63%.

Grains fell overnight as near ideal weather looks to boost crop growth in the coming weeks. Overnight, new-crop corn fell 5, while new-crop soybeans were down 14. Wheat also fell 4 cents.

Nearly ideal corn and soybean growing weather is expected in the U.S. crop belt through the end of June as farmers wind down seedings that were delayed by excessive spring rainfall. Isolated showers are expected this week in the Midwest this week and there is no heat expected for an extended period of time. Temperatures will rise to the upper 70s (to low 80s F and another round of showers will begin this coming weekend, he said. Overall, the weather looks very favorable for crop development.

In international markets, South Korea’s largest feedmaker NOFI issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 MT of corn, 55,000 MT of feed wheat overnight. Lower prices of late have renewed interest by buyers, but whether this leads to US sales remains to be seen. Black Sea markets continue to pickup, especially on wheat deals of late.

Southwest Kansas began cutting HRW harvest last week Harvest is in full swing from north Texas to the Kansas state line. In southern Texas 90% of the crop has been harvested, while in the north central areas over 50% has been harvested. For SRW Wheat, harvest is occurring in Southern states up to Arkansas. On the East Coast, soggy fields from prolonged periods of rain are hampering harvest.

Grains continued their mixed ways overnight with soybeans trading higher while corn and wheat were mostly lower.

A better showing in soybean basis of late led by crushing plants seems to be providing a lift to soybean futures overall. On Monday of next week, NOPA crush numbers will be released with market expectations roughly on par with April’s 120.1 MB value.

In wheat, spring crop sowings in Saskatchewan, Canada hit 96%, well ahead of the average pace of 89% by then. But, the recent declines in Chicago wheat put prices back in the range where China has reportedly booked significant tonnage, and the market reaction to the $6.75-6.80 a bushel range seems to indicate somebody has found value.

For corn, better growing conditions are expected as dry weather returns to much of the Midwest and temperatures begin to rise. Basis levels are starting to inch up after the recent slide in futures with some ethanol plants bidding up basis as margins still remain strong for ethanol makers.

Grains were mostly quiet overnight after Wednesday’s supply and demand data from USDA pushed prices lower.

USDA’s production forecasts came in higher than most traders had expected. In corn, USDA kept planted acres unchanged from their March Planting Intentions report of 97.3 million acres. However, they did slightly lower their yield forecast. All totaled, ending stocks for new-crop 2013/14 were at 1,949 MB a far cry from analyst expectations of 1,795 MB.

For soybeans, USDA also didn’t go out on a limb on their acreage forecast from the March survey, keeping it steady at 77.1 million acres and leaving the new-crop balance sheet unchanged from May, with ending stocks at 265 MB.

In wheat, USDA’s production numbers came in higher than expected with improved yield over last month’s forecast. However, USDA bumped up their export forecast for new-crop wheat helping to push ending stocks lower to 659 MB, but still above trade expectations of 630 MB. Yesterday, USDA said an agricultural dragnet has found no cases of unapproved genetically engineered wheat outside of a 123-acre field in Oregon after two months of an ongoing investigation.

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES (Thousand Metric Tons)

Grains were mixed overnight as soybeans found modest strength following Tuesday’s sharp rally while wheat and corn were lower in night trading.

Today’s USDA WASDE report should keep the trade narrow in the morning as participants wait for fresh supply and demand data. New crop production numbers will be the big movers following this spring’s delayed planting pace.

Expectations are for US ending stocks of new crop corn to be lowered 200 million bushels in the USDA report. Driving lower ending stocks numbers will be lower production estimates after this spring’s delayed planting across much of the Corn Belt. The USDA projected in their May report that 97.3 million acres would be planted this spring averaging 158 bushels per acre. In years that we have seen planting pace this slow the USDA has, on average, reduced corn acreage by 1.25 million acres and yield by 1.38 bushels per acre in their June report.

Much smaller revisions are expected for 13/14 US soybean ending stocks, with the market looking for 3 million bushels added to projected ending stocks from the May report. Many northern areas were unable to get planted before preventive planting dates for corn, and we could see slightly larger soybean acreage as a result. Expect most revisions in this report to come from the production side of the balance sheet. Old-crop carryout for all three grains is expected to be on par with the May forecasts.

Grains posted a modest recovery overnight following Monday’s sharp selloff. In the overnight session, soybeans were up 8, corn was up 2 and wheat was fractionally lower.

US corn plantings were pegged at 95% complete versus 91% last week.  However, with wet weather in the forecast and the late time of the season, it may be difficult to get the final 5% in the ground. A weekly survey from broker Roach Ag Marketing showed that farmers were likely to claim prevent plant insurance on 2.85 million acres of corn, up 290,000 from the previous week’s survey. In cash markets, basis levels were mostly steady with major-player Cargill at Blair, NE raising its nearby bid to by 2 to +77N. Most of the areas are seeing strength from processors as river markets have backed off on basis in recent weeks.

For soybeans, talk of a farmer strike in Argentina is getting some attention. Today, producers there are expected to announce plans for a week-long strike to protest government policies they say are strangling the farm sector.  The impact on shipments will be limited by the fact that Thursday and Friday of next week are holidays. In the US, soybeans plantings were 71% completed as compared to 57% last week.

In wheat, both spring and winter wheat crop conditions fell this past week. Winter wheat currently stands at 31% good to excellent off from 32% last week, and 53% last year. Spring wheat came in at 62% off from 64% last week and 75% last year. Egypt’s stock of wheat is enough to meet the country’s needs until Dec. 1 and the state has bought 3.5 MT of locally grown grain so far this season, the minister of supplies said on Monday.

Grains fell sharply overnight as traders looked  to take profits after last week’s rally. Corn was off 8 cents a bushel while soybeans fell 18 cents a bushel. Wheat was off 5 cents overnight.

Corn and soybeans rallied at the end of last week as rain in the U.S. Midwest raised the risk of fresh delays to field work after wet, cool weather already hampered this year’s sowing. Although more rains are expected this week, it is difficult for the market to get overly bullish this time of year on excess moisture concerns.

Traders will be eagerly watching today’s crop progress report after the market closes. Soybeans were 57% planted last week, behind the five-year average of 74%, while corn was 91% planted, behind the five-year average of 95%.  The market is expecting the USDA to show between 92 and 95% of U.S corn was planted at the end of last week. Soybean seeding is estimated around 70 to 73%.

US Wheat Associates says the 2013 HRW harvest has been slower than normal due to rain in north Texas. Harvest has resumed In Central Texas and is now about 25% complete with good test weight and good yields being reported. Harvest further north along the Texas/Oklahoma state line is now 50% to 70% complete. Many acres in this area have been abandoned due to drought and freeze damage. Iraq tendered for a 50,000 MT shipment of wheat from US and other potential countries.

Grains were mostly higher over night with the exception of front-month July futures which was unchanged.

Soybeans continue to find good cash demand as soy basis levels recover from the slide two weeks ago. End-users having been bidding up spot prices in an attempt to replenish pipeline supplies.  New-crop futures continue to be underpinned by late planting concerns although trade talk of higher soybean acres being switched from corn should keep the market in check until we see new acreage forecasts at the end of this month.

For wheat, India projected their wheat stocks on June at 44.4 MMT, more than 25% of the world’s total. India has only sold a little more than half of the 9.5 MMT it has offered either directly to traders or through state-run sellers as the buyers have mostly balked at their high [rice and poorer quality.

In corn, concerns are waning over yield losses as a result of wet weather in the U.S.  and poor export demand keeps nearby prices on the defensive.  Weekly corn export sales of 158,800 MT were below expectations of 600,000 to 900,000 MT combined for old- and new-crop deliveries.

Grain prices were mostly weaker overnight with the exception of new-crop corn futures which found a modest recovery after steeps losses in the past couple of sessions.

In corn, Wednesday’s EIA weekly ethanol report showed production was up 22,000 bbl per day to 885,000 bbl per day, a marketing year high. Crush margin backed off a bit last week, now $1.86 in Iowa. Corn basis continues to hold firm as the PNW export market gained strength overnight and processors in Nebraska look to be bidding more aggressively for corn in Jul/Aug with basis levels running +100U to +150U for late summer delivery.

In wheat, Iran’s state grains buyer GTC purchased around 600,000 MT of milling wheat from the Baltic Sea region and Germany in the last two weeks. In addition, Japan was a buyer of 163,000 MT of wheat from US, Canada and Australian sources.

For soybeans, front-month July is trying to find strength after falling from its recent highs of $15.47 yesterday where it currently trades at $15.30. Near-term demand for soybeans continues to hold up with basis levels staying firm through much of the Midwest.

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES (in thousand MT)